AlfredNobel_adjusted

AlfredNobel_adjusted

The 2010 Nobel Prize announcements will not begin rolling out until October 4, but the speculation about who will be lauded this year has already begun. Thomson Reuters, the information and media giant, released its annual predictions of likely honorees September 21, based on an analysis of highly cited research papers in each field.

The Thomson Reuters short list, which contains three individuals or groups per prize, has matched up only occasionally with the actual prize recipients in recent years, which may be as accurate as anyone can be in predicting the oft-surprising Nobels. (President Barack Obama’s 2009 Nobel Peace Prize comes to mind as a recent and largely unanticipated plot twist.) The new predictions cover only the prizes for physics, chemistry, economics and physiology or medicine; the Thomson Reuters methodology of tracking journal citations does not apply as well to the peace or literature prizes.

Chemistry: Patrick O. Brown of Stanford University and the Howard Hughes Medical Institute, for “the invention and application of DNA microarrays“; Susumu Kitagawa of Kyoto University and Omar M. Yaghi of the University of California, Los Angeles, for “the design and development of porous metal-organic frameworks”; and Stephen J. Lippard of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, for “pioneering research in bioinorganic chemistry, including the discovery of metallointercalators to disrupt DNA replication.”

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